Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-24 0.359654 0.410318 0.465333 0.529479 0.602195 0.682041 0.776346
2025-08-31 0.280933 0.346870 0.424032 0.520893 0.639143 0.778731 0.955965
2025-09-07 0.233592 0.309927 0.405534 0.533832 0.701281 0.912201 1.197896
2025-09-14 0.185244 0.263016 0.366842 0.515166 0.721205 0.996878 1.393363
2025-09-21 0.152233 0.230345 0.341046 0.508707 0.755517 1.104741 1.635656
2025-09-28 0.125525 0.201698 0.315909 0.498650 0.782684 1.206132 1.884018
2025-10-05 0.110562 0.187868 0.309995 0.515594 0.851587 1.377158 2.259381
2025-10-12 0.094869 0.170039 0.294855 0.515387 0.893327 1.511978 2.597939
2025-10-19 0.083155 0.156756 0.284846 0.521699 0.946129 1.671059 2.997877
2025-10-26 0.074495 0.147298 0.279745 0.535384 1.013097 1.862212 3.478294
2025-11-02 0.063138 0.130812 0.259383 0.518130 1.021778 1.952281 3.791607
2025-11-09 0.052600 0.114033 0.235748 0.490800 1.007166 1.997321 4.027047
2025-11-16 0.045359 0.102940 0.221951 0.481679 1.028674 2.117355 4.431645
2025-11-23 0.039114 0.092830 0.208527 0.471223 1.046088 2.232298 4.844197
2025-11-30 0.035430 0.087735 0.204884 0.481025 1.107575 2.445140 5.489336
2025-12-07 0.030225 0.078121 0.189704 0.462810 1.105368 2.524574 5.863103
2025-12-14 0.026545 0.071486 0.180202 0.456028 1.127823 2.660396 6.380560
2025-12-21 0.023219 0.065092 0.170179 0.446305 1.141832 2.779170 6.876416
2025-12-28 0.021616 0.062897 0.170086 0.461008 1.216901 3.048569 7.762164
2026-01-04 0.019459 0.058772 0.164387 0.460456 1.253875 3.232586 8.468091
2026-01-11 0.017813 0.055770 0.161139 0.465843 1.306993 3.463350 9.322636
2026-01-18 0.016599 0.053802 0.160377 0.477902 1.379710 3.753295 10.368730
2026-01-25 0.014538 0.048842 0.150367 0.462314 1.374631 3.841924 10.900523